Friday, January 4, 2013
PRU13: Belah sana Belah sini
The biggest question facing Malaysia is who will win the general election. Malaysia has come to a crossroad after 56 years of BN governance. Now, there is a chance the pendulum may swing the other way. There really is a glimmer of hope for the Pakatan Rakyat to secure Putrajaya.
Already, the legitimate government in four states, it now commands nearly fifty percent of the people’s trust. No doubt about it, the ‘silent majority’ is increasingly aware they have another political choice apart from the BN, and many are tempted to vote Pakatan the 13th general election.
Attempts by the government to discredit Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim and team has lent greater credence to the fact that BN is devoid of a comfort zone and lacks the confidence to retake Putrajaya. The incessant attacks against PAS deputy president Mat Sabu which includes roadshows, and angry rebuke from army veterans aired on the BN-controlled TV channels show that BN is getting desperate. No doubt about it, the attacks on Anwar and Guan Eng will increase in the coming days and is a testament that the BN will go for the kill.
Prime Minister Najib Razak and BN spin doctors have no idea what a populist message is and they continue treating the Opposition as though they were pre-Tsunami 2008 wannabes ,not national power players they are.
Even more damaging, UMNO continues treating a sizeable section of the electorate with access to the alternative media and who actively participate in civil disobedience walkabouts as enemies of the UMNO state.
When you have stupidly defined this upcoming general election as a “war” with racial and religious undertones, losing becomes a prospect too unimaginable to consider. The only real loss for UMNO would be the possibility of Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim’s retribution and of course, ejection from the gravy train which has sustained UMNO all these decades. This is the great loss which UMNO attempts to portray in terms of Malay political hegemony and the decline of Islam.
They never once consider that the election of Anwar whose policies are very similar to their own and the ascendance of PAS by popular legitimate will, points to the exact opposite of what they fear.
However, no one should write the BN off yet. They are still the ruling government with a well-oiled and well-funded machinery and it won’t be easy to dislodge them.
Not only can they still win, but there is even a possibility that they may again command a two-thirds majority. This may be disappointing news to the Pakatan supporters or Pakatanis but this is the reality. An Amnesty program is going on and there is talk of hundreds of thousands of illegals being given instant citizenships for voting BN.
So let’s look at the possible scenarios, beginning with what will happen should BN win – again!
BN wins
Once BN is in full control, the country will see peace and harmony again like in the days of Mahathir Mohamd and Abdullah Badawi. The Race and Religion card will disappear, waiting for an opportune time to re-emerge, perhaps half a decade later when the GE-14 is due and they need to split the races again. Everything will go back to ‘normal’, with corrupt officials going back to graft and Pakatan would disintegrate with some leaders even fleeing to BN.
Perkasa will not disappear as many would think. Rela will enjoy a higher membership in preparation for the next election and BN will weave a thicker web among the Malays to ensure enough support. They will not make the same mistake again nor take it for granted that their support base is guaranteed.
However, it will be goodbye to individual freedoms, equal opportunities or meritocracy while race relations will take a turn for the worse. Malaysian unity will remain just a dream. There will be no change in the present stifling policies and the government will have a free hand to manipulate issues to their whims and fancies.
New cronies will join the gang and new economic policies will be bulldozed through which may impair the free market economy necessary for the nation’s survival. An example is Prasarana’s attempt to acquire Chinatown in the name of infrastructural development. There will be an influx of cheap foreign labour while disillusioned well-to-do non-Bumis may contemplate migration to other countries like Australia, America or Singapore.
But those who stay will get to see an improved and beefed-up Biro Tata Negara, with its web of distortion amplified to make sure the Malays feel even more under seige from the ‘cunning’ Chinese and the ‘rowdy’ Indians.
As Malay-nization sprouts deeper roots in all our institutions, such as the civil service, schools, educationists and politics, it will stifle whatever freedoms that remain standing. In the end, Malaysia will be no different from a socialist state with subdued citizens lacking the courage to voice out their unhappiness.
But then, there is always the hope that BN will revive 1Malaysia, do a complete U-turn to embrace democracy and abide by the Federal Constitution. Ibrahim Ali may apologize and become a Saint, while Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin may enforce a Malaysian Malaysia with a unite-and-rule policy. Sure, Elvis will return from the dead and sing ‘Kumbayah’!
Hung Parliament
Or there may be a hung parliament after the general election, with an almost 50-50 representation from each side, BN and Pakatan. This could pave the way for a unity government. It may be the best solution in this situation, but it will hardly benefit the nation and its people.
As expected, there will be BN attempts to entice MPs and pressure would be put on the Pakatan government to concede in favour of BN.
Heated arguments would become a common occurrence in Parliament, with arrogance and pride coming into play. There would hardly be any chance to formulate policy let alone implement them. So much for a unity government, which will not work given that Pakatan and BN are as different as day and night.
But on the positive side, the nation may see better governance, with reforms gradually introduced to appease the people, and stimulate the economy. There will be lesser corruption and race relations may take a turn for the better. A unity government may even conceive a workable solution that could enhance beneficial progress for the nation.
Pakatan wins
Or Pakatan Rakyat wins with a simple majority which could potentially make Prime Minister Najib Razak, his deputy, ex-premier Mahathir tear out their hair and run amok in the streets. Comical? But that would exactly be how they would be viewed by the world should they try to seize power by force.
But a destabilised, violent and anarchic Malaysia is a scare tactic frequently used by the BN, and it worked for decades. Until Bersih 2.0 finally woke people up to the fact that times have changed and Malaysians are no longer scared to go head to head with the government of the day.
Will the police shoot to kill their own citizens, will the armed forces do the same? Perhaps they might. But then what happen to Malaysia. Which country in the world would ever receive Najib, Muhyiddin or Mahathir? Even their children would tarred with the stigma that they came from murderous parents?
Just look Julia Gillard. See how the Australian court decided against the Malaysia refugee swap deal without fear or favour. See how she accepted the decision with humility, even though she didn’t agree. This is how far civil society has become in the advanced world. It also shows how far behind Malaysia is.
So anarchy and bloodshed, skirmishes and threats – let the BN spin. Should it happen, then the UN would send troops just like they did to Libya and then the guilty UMNO elite will be taken prisoners and tried by a tribunal. I can still remember Saddam Hussein’s hanging.
And all this may come to pass before Malaysia becomes a true democracy. But there is hope that the next government, whether BN or Pakatan will come to their senses and implement the necessary reforms to bring the country out of its self-induced coma, and break the barriers of racial politics and make the dream of a Malaysian unity come true.
There is so much going for this nation, but we sometimes wonder why certain politicians try so hard to destroy it, politically, socially, culturally and environmentally, instead of nursing it back to health.
Pakatan supporters mean well but..
Pakatan supporters are a diverse demographic, united in their abhorrence of UMNO and for the most part are right-thinking Malaysians (attempting to escape their racial preoccupation cage) who support the three opposition parties and their sometimes conflicting agendas. However, there are different strains of vocal supporters that unfortunately define Pakatan’s online presence.
Pakatan kool aid drinkers mean well but unfortunately buy into the multiracial new (disingenuous) deal which Pakatan offers that often times clouds their objectivity. DAP online apparatchiks are so hypocritical (not to mention most of them are crypto racists) that principle, political expediency and racial politics are all the same.
Then there are Pakatan supporters who are not blind to the flaws of our preferred political parties and who view a change of political leadership as a basic democratic principle that could lead to a better Malaysia through a two-coalition power tussle.
The only real demographic that UMNO-BN has left – I should be clear on this – is this so-called “non-partisan” demographic who think that “UMNO has been allowed to run riot for too long” but the opposition is offering the “same shit with a different shovel”.
This demographic which the mainstream media mischaracterises as the pro-BN ‘silent majority’ is probably more influential than either coalitions, but who nervously wait in the sidelines.
UMNO assumes it has their loyalty but the recent political messes that both coalitions find themselves embroiled in could translate to voter apathy (the more things change the more they remain the same, is the rationale) which would mean partisan voter turnout is what decides the fate of this country.
However should the Malay vote swing back to UMNO, then prepare for a new era of UMNO hegemony replete with retributions to those who have dared crossed the UMNO line. Of course, UMNO has the edge with its dirty bag of tricks, which makes any victory and there could be a real possibility of a pyrrhic one, devoid of any moral legitimacy.
Najib begs for a second chance to show his ‘leadership’ skills but the reality is that in UMNO and BN, such skills have never been a prerequisite for holding power. The internal mechanism of choosing a ‘leader’ in UMNO is predicated on money politics, sycophancy and political patronage (and not necessarily in that order) refined by that old master of dark political sorcery, former Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
Anwar deserves second chance
If anyone is to have a second chance, it is Anwar Ibrahim. He is perhaps the most successful political operative UMNO has ever created.
By reinventing himself as the voice of a moderate Malaysia and by sustaining (which takes leaderships skills never imagined by UMNO) his fragile coalition made up of disparate voices united in their ‘UMNO must go’ harmony, it is Anwar who has some moral claim to the idea that he is the ‘people’s choice’ or at least a sizeable section of the voting public, to lead them into a much hoped for new UMNO-free era.
A long-time articulate UMNO friend asks, “Doesn’t stability mean the middle ground, any more?” The question he should be asking is, “What led UMNO to arrogantly believe that they could define the middle ground, forever?”
If UMNO loses, it will not be because a partisan electorate thinks that Pakatan is a better choice to lead the country, it will be because for some, Pakatan (for a wide range of reasons) is the only alternative to UMNO. Just as UMNO has declared a certain section of the public as traitors, said section has returned the favour in spades. I have made this argument before of the partisan nature of Malaysian politics and what each coalition is peddling.
I would much rather usher in a new era of political squabbling a two-coalition paradigm offers than stagnate under a decrepit UMNO which over the years has been devouring itself. At least in the former, there is a small possibility of change since Pakatan has demonstrated that it is aware of the will of the people.
At the end of the day, this is UMNO’s last great political fight. Already the rumour mills in Kuala Lumpur are in a frenzy of the war chest jealously guarded to fund party hopping initiatives. Pakatan has a poor record when it comes to this issue. Anwar’s September 16 fiasco is a cogent reminder that the UMNO apple does not fall far from the tree.
Very soon, UMNO’s day of reckoning will be not only a test for UMNO but also for those of people in the Opposition. It would surprise me if UMNO loses, but the real test for the Opposition is if UMNO wins or worse reclaims its mythical two-thirds majority. Either way, it will be a new era in politics. The political tsunami of 2008 has irrevocably changed things.
No matter how much UMNO attempts to keep the malice of May 13 in the minds of people, the reality is that people will remember the importance of the Tsunami of 2008 as a turning point in the history of Malaysia.
** My New Year hope is that we have another turning point in favour for the better Malaysia. No matter who is going to be the ruling party for Malaysia, I just hope that everyone can learn 3 things from this election 2008 – Malaysia belongs to all of us, all of us are hoping that Malaysia can become a much better place to live in and .. we all still care a lot for this country.
Already, the legitimate government in four states, it now commands nearly fifty percent of the people’s trust. No doubt about it, the ‘silent majority’ is increasingly aware they have another political choice apart from the BN, and many are tempted to vote Pakatan the 13th general election.
Attempts by the government to discredit Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim and team has lent greater credence to the fact that BN is devoid of a comfort zone and lacks the confidence to retake Putrajaya. The incessant attacks against PAS deputy president Mat Sabu which includes roadshows, and angry rebuke from army veterans aired on the BN-controlled TV channels show that BN is getting desperate. No doubt about it, the attacks on Anwar and Guan Eng will increase in the coming days and is a testament that the BN will go for the kill.
Prime Minister Najib Razak and BN spin doctors have no idea what a populist message is and they continue treating the Opposition as though they were pre-Tsunami 2008 wannabes ,not national power players they are.
Even more damaging, UMNO continues treating a sizeable section of the electorate with access to the alternative media and who actively participate in civil disobedience walkabouts as enemies of the UMNO state.
When you have stupidly defined this upcoming general election as a “war” with racial and religious undertones, losing becomes a prospect too unimaginable to consider. The only real loss for UMNO would be the possibility of Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim’s retribution and of course, ejection from the gravy train which has sustained UMNO all these decades. This is the great loss which UMNO attempts to portray in terms of Malay political hegemony and the decline of Islam.
They never once consider that the election of Anwar whose policies are very similar to their own and the ascendance of PAS by popular legitimate will, points to the exact opposite of what they fear.
However, no one should write the BN off yet. They are still the ruling government with a well-oiled and well-funded machinery and it won’t be easy to dislodge them.
Not only can they still win, but there is even a possibility that they may again command a two-thirds majority. This may be disappointing news to the Pakatan supporters or Pakatanis but this is the reality. An Amnesty program is going on and there is talk of hundreds of thousands of illegals being given instant citizenships for voting BN.
So let’s look at the possible scenarios, beginning with what will happen should BN win – again!
BN wins
Once BN is in full control, the country will see peace and harmony again like in the days of Mahathir Mohamd and Abdullah Badawi. The Race and Religion card will disappear, waiting for an opportune time to re-emerge, perhaps half a decade later when the GE-14 is due and they need to split the races again. Everything will go back to ‘normal’, with corrupt officials going back to graft and Pakatan would disintegrate with some leaders even fleeing to BN.
Perkasa will not disappear as many would think. Rela will enjoy a higher membership in preparation for the next election and BN will weave a thicker web among the Malays to ensure enough support. They will not make the same mistake again nor take it for granted that their support base is guaranteed.
However, it will be goodbye to individual freedoms, equal opportunities or meritocracy while race relations will take a turn for the worse. Malaysian unity will remain just a dream. There will be no change in the present stifling policies and the government will have a free hand to manipulate issues to their whims and fancies.
New cronies will join the gang and new economic policies will be bulldozed through which may impair the free market economy necessary for the nation’s survival. An example is Prasarana’s attempt to acquire Chinatown in the name of infrastructural development. There will be an influx of cheap foreign labour while disillusioned well-to-do non-Bumis may contemplate migration to other countries like Australia, America or Singapore.
But those who stay will get to see an improved and beefed-up Biro Tata Negara, with its web of distortion amplified to make sure the Malays feel even more under seige from the ‘cunning’ Chinese and the ‘rowdy’ Indians.
As Malay-nization sprouts deeper roots in all our institutions, such as the civil service, schools, educationists and politics, it will stifle whatever freedoms that remain standing. In the end, Malaysia will be no different from a socialist state with subdued citizens lacking the courage to voice out their unhappiness.
But then, there is always the hope that BN will revive 1Malaysia, do a complete U-turn to embrace democracy and abide by the Federal Constitution. Ibrahim Ali may apologize and become a Saint, while Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin may enforce a Malaysian Malaysia with a unite-and-rule policy. Sure, Elvis will return from the dead and sing ‘Kumbayah’!
Hung Parliament
Or there may be a hung parliament after the general election, with an almost 50-50 representation from each side, BN and Pakatan. This could pave the way for a unity government. It may be the best solution in this situation, but it will hardly benefit the nation and its people.
As expected, there will be BN attempts to entice MPs and pressure would be put on the Pakatan government to concede in favour of BN.
Heated arguments would become a common occurrence in Parliament, with arrogance and pride coming into play. There would hardly be any chance to formulate policy let alone implement them. So much for a unity government, which will not work given that Pakatan and BN are as different as day and night.
But on the positive side, the nation may see better governance, with reforms gradually introduced to appease the people, and stimulate the economy. There will be lesser corruption and race relations may take a turn for the better. A unity government may even conceive a workable solution that could enhance beneficial progress for the nation.
Pakatan wins
Or Pakatan Rakyat wins with a simple majority which could potentially make Prime Minister Najib Razak, his deputy, ex-premier Mahathir tear out their hair and run amok in the streets. Comical? But that would exactly be how they would be viewed by the world should they try to seize power by force.
But a destabilised, violent and anarchic Malaysia is a scare tactic frequently used by the BN, and it worked for decades. Until Bersih 2.0 finally woke people up to the fact that times have changed and Malaysians are no longer scared to go head to head with the government of the day.
Will the police shoot to kill their own citizens, will the armed forces do the same? Perhaps they might. But then what happen to Malaysia. Which country in the world would ever receive Najib, Muhyiddin or Mahathir? Even their children would tarred with the stigma that they came from murderous parents?
Just look Julia Gillard. See how the Australian court decided against the Malaysia refugee swap deal without fear or favour. See how she accepted the decision with humility, even though she didn’t agree. This is how far civil society has become in the advanced world. It also shows how far behind Malaysia is.
So anarchy and bloodshed, skirmishes and threats – let the BN spin. Should it happen, then the UN would send troops just like they did to Libya and then the guilty UMNO elite will be taken prisoners and tried by a tribunal. I can still remember Saddam Hussein’s hanging.
And all this may come to pass before Malaysia becomes a true democracy. But there is hope that the next government, whether BN or Pakatan will come to their senses and implement the necessary reforms to bring the country out of its self-induced coma, and break the barriers of racial politics and make the dream of a Malaysian unity come true.
There is so much going for this nation, but we sometimes wonder why certain politicians try so hard to destroy it, politically, socially, culturally and environmentally, instead of nursing it back to health.
Pakatan supporters mean well but..
Pakatan supporters are a diverse demographic, united in their abhorrence of UMNO and for the most part are right-thinking Malaysians (attempting to escape their racial preoccupation cage) who support the three opposition parties and their sometimes conflicting agendas. However, there are different strains of vocal supporters that unfortunately define Pakatan’s online presence.
Pakatan kool aid drinkers mean well but unfortunately buy into the multiracial new (disingenuous) deal which Pakatan offers that often times clouds their objectivity. DAP online apparatchiks are so hypocritical (not to mention most of them are crypto racists) that principle, political expediency and racial politics are all the same.
Then there are Pakatan supporters who are not blind to the flaws of our preferred political parties and who view a change of political leadership as a basic democratic principle that could lead to a better Malaysia through a two-coalition power tussle.
The only real demographic that UMNO-BN has left – I should be clear on this – is this so-called “non-partisan” demographic who think that “UMNO has been allowed to run riot for too long” but the opposition is offering the “same shit with a different shovel”.
This demographic which the mainstream media mischaracterises as the pro-BN ‘silent majority’ is probably more influential than either coalitions, but who nervously wait in the sidelines.
UMNO assumes it has their loyalty but the recent political messes that both coalitions find themselves embroiled in could translate to voter apathy (the more things change the more they remain the same, is the rationale) which would mean partisan voter turnout is what decides the fate of this country.
However should the Malay vote swing back to UMNO, then prepare for a new era of UMNO hegemony replete with retributions to those who have dared crossed the UMNO line. Of course, UMNO has the edge with its dirty bag of tricks, which makes any victory and there could be a real possibility of a pyrrhic one, devoid of any moral legitimacy.
Najib begs for a second chance to show his ‘leadership’ skills but the reality is that in UMNO and BN, such skills have never been a prerequisite for holding power. The internal mechanism of choosing a ‘leader’ in UMNO is predicated on money politics, sycophancy and political patronage (and not necessarily in that order) refined by that old master of dark political sorcery, former Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
Anwar deserves second chance
If anyone is to have a second chance, it is Anwar Ibrahim. He is perhaps the most successful political operative UMNO has ever created.
By reinventing himself as the voice of a moderate Malaysia and by sustaining (which takes leaderships skills never imagined by UMNO) his fragile coalition made up of disparate voices united in their ‘UMNO must go’ harmony, it is Anwar who has some moral claim to the idea that he is the ‘people’s choice’ or at least a sizeable section of the voting public, to lead them into a much hoped for new UMNO-free era.
A long-time articulate UMNO friend asks, “Doesn’t stability mean the middle ground, any more?” The question he should be asking is, “What led UMNO to arrogantly believe that they could define the middle ground, forever?”
If UMNO loses, it will not be because a partisan electorate thinks that Pakatan is a better choice to lead the country, it will be because for some, Pakatan (for a wide range of reasons) is the only alternative to UMNO. Just as UMNO has declared a certain section of the public as traitors, said section has returned the favour in spades. I have made this argument before of the partisan nature of Malaysian politics and what each coalition is peddling.
I would much rather usher in a new era of political squabbling a two-coalition paradigm offers than stagnate under a decrepit UMNO which over the years has been devouring itself. At least in the former, there is a small possibility of change since Pakatan has demonstrated that it is aware of the will of the people.
At the end of the day, this is UMNO’s last great political fight. Already the rumour mills in Kuala Lumpur are in a frenzy of the war chest jealously guarded to fund party hopping initiatives. Pakatan has a poor record when it comes to this issue. Anwar’s September 16 fiasco is a cogent reminder that the UMNO apple does not fall far from the tree.
Very soon, UMNO’s day of reckoning will be not only a test for UMNO but also for those of people in the Opposition. It would surprise me if UMNO loses, but the real test for the Opposition is if UMNO wins or worse reclaims its mythical two-thirds majority. Either way, it will be a new era in politics. The political tsunami of 2008 has irrevocably changed things.
No matter how much UMNO attempts to keep the malice of May 13 in the minds of people, the reality is that people will remember the importance of the Tsunami of 2008 as a turning point in the history of Malaysia.
** My New Year hope is that we have another turning point in favour for the better Malaysia. No matter who is going to be the ruling party for Malaysia, I just hope that everyone can learn 3 things from this election 2008 – Malaysia belongs to all of us, all of us are hoping that Malaysia can become a much better place to live in and .. we all still care a lot for this country.
Labels: Current Affairs
just my 2cents at 10:58 AM |
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